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More good news to report!! The National Association of Home Builders is reporting a 4.7 percent gain in new-home sales in February.

“This is an encouraging sign that the market may finally be reaching a bottom,” said Joe Robson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “Consumers are beginning to take advantage of the first-time home buyer tax credit, historically low mortgage rates, very affordable home prices and the great selection of homes they have to choose from in the midst of a real buyer’s market. For those with good credit and job security, the stars are all aligned to buy a home at this time.” 

Regionally, new-home sales rose strongly in the two largest markets in February, with gains of 9.7 percent in the South and 6.6 percent in the West. However, sales numbers declined in the Northeast and Midwest, by 3.3 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively. *

The biggest gains came in the Northeast, where sales were up by nearly 16 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home sales in the South came in 6 percent higher for the month; they were up by nearly 3 percent in the Western states and one percent in the Midwest.*

Nationally, sales of condos rose faster than detached single family dwellings – 11.4 percent versus 4.4 percent.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates continue on their sharp downward track, hitting six-decade lows last week. Fixed rate thirty year loans plunged to an average 4.6 percent from 4.9 percent with one point, while 15-year rates sunk below four and a half percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.*

Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) on Friday (4/3/09) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.78 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 2, 2009, down from last week when it averaged 4.85 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.88 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been lower in the life of Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which dates back to 1971 for the 30-year FRM.**                             

 The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.52 percent with n average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.58 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.42 percent. The 15-year FRM has never been lower in the life of Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which dates back to 1991 for the 15-year FRM.**

Pending home sales have edged up, hinting at a possible pickup of sales activity in coming months, according to the National Association of Realtors^®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 2.1 percent to 82.1 from a reading of 80.4 in January, but is 1.4 percent below February 2008 when it was 83.3.***

Video:
REALTOR® Magazine talks with NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun about pending home sales data released April 1, 2009.

Also in February, NAR’s Housing Affordability Index² rose to a new high. The PHSI in the Northeast rose 10.6 percent to 63.9 in February but is 11.2 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 14.5 percent to 83.1 and is 3.4 percent higher than February 2008. The index in the South rose 4.4 percent to 85.8 in February but is 0.1 percent below a year ago. In the West the index fell 13.5 percent to 89.6 and is 1.7 percent below February 2008.***

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index rose 0.9 percentage points to a record high of 173.5 in February from an upwardly revised index of 172.6 in January, and is 36.3 percentage points higher than a year ago. The HAI, a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, shows that the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income is the most favorable since tracking began in 1970.***

A median-income family, earning $59,700, could afford a home costing $285,600 in February with a 20 percent downpayment, assuming 25 percent of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80 percent of that amount. The affordable price is considerably higher the median existing single-family home price in February, which was only $164,600.***

*Realty Times 3/31/09
**Realty Times 4/3/09
***National Association of Realtors

¹The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

Each March, NAR Research conducts a review of PHSI seasonal adjustment factors and fine-tunes data for the past three years.

²The Housing Affordability Index is a relative index where a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home, taking into account the relationship between median home price, average effective interest rate for loans closed on existing homes, and median family income. The higher the index, the better housing affordability is for buyers.

The calculation assumes a downpayment of 20 percent and a qualifying ratio of 25 percent of gross income for mortgage principle and interest payments. The index is a general gauge with conditions varying widely around the country. Affordability conditions are lower for first-time buyers with smaller downpayments and less income.

Monthly publication of the index began in 1981 with annual data calculated back to 1970.

Existing-home sales for March will be released April 23; the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on May 4.